by Antony on 21/10/06

There are a few golden rules to follow in NFL betting that makes it quite different to many other sports

Unlike most sports, NFL teams can change their form dramatically from season to season.  The best approach is to almost throw last years form out for the start of the new season.

Preseason matches in NFL are used for fitness, practice and experimentation.  No-one wants to pick up injuries either so they are so different from a competetive matchup that they are useless for predicting regular season form.

If a team is doing well then its probably in good form.  Even if you can pick holes in the form such as an easy schedule, the very fact that a team has such a good record now puts it in a strong position to get a good seeding in the playoffs.  This is very very important as the top 2 teams with the best records in each conference (based on their number of wins) not only get home field advatage in their playoff matches but also get a bye week in which to rest and prepare.  This gives them an outstanding chance of making the conference final.

Teams are generally just interested in winning their games.  Yes they like to be up by more than one score (i.e. greater than 7 points) if they can as this gives them a degree of comfort but as the minites close they are just playing to win.  

If a team has a small lead then it may try to run the clock down and wont even bother attempting more points so as not to risk giving the ball away. 

If a team has a larger lead then it wont be too concerned about letting one score against them as long as it wastes a lot of time and they still have a good enough lead.

Teams in the lead often get more reserved in their play choices and this can lead to the trailing team mounting a comeback.  It wont always be a successful comeback but it often will reduce the defecit enough to affect a handicap bet.